mimesis

Pre-registration: the every-story, 2025 video vs three 2019 texts

Status: NOT RUN. This file, the script and the input hashes are published before the run. The commit time is the timestamp. The result will go in its own file, and this one will stay unchanged.

Why

This is the job mimesis was first written for. Its first script (bin/compare_sources.py, June 25, 2025) says: “compares 4 versions of TB’s ‘every-story’… data/original is from 2025! as they rolled out the same script… 3 sources from 2019”. We are doing it again, with every input saved and hashed first.

Inputs (sha256 in inputs.SHA256SUMS)

Name What Where
video The 2025 White House video of his border remarks, 2:53 (our copy, YouTube i5ID7VTlLuw) not in this repo
deseret Deseret News op-ed, Feb 4, 2019: “I’ve fought sex trafficking at the border. This is why we need a wall” deseret.com
foxnews Fox News op-ed: “I’ve fought sex trafficking as a DHS special agent. We need to build the wall for the children” foxnews.com
whitehouse The 2019 White House meeting on human trafficking at the border, full transcript The American Presidency Project

The three pages were saved on 2026-10-12 and hashed without being read. Their text is the page’s <p> paragraphs, so site boilerplate comes along. Known about the video: our old watermark timer suggests about 16 s are missing between 0:20 and 2:01 of our copy (THE CUT notes, 2026-10-10).

Prediction (locked)

Player Call
John (@Jimzz1e) “100% match… wall and all”, the way it came out the first time, in June 2025

Tests and decision rules

The video is transcribed by openai-whisper small (English, temperature 0) inside the run.

Test A, the elements of the story. Each is searched (case-insensitive) in the video transcript and in each text:

  Element Searched as
E1 girl kidnapped in Central America central america
E2 11 years old (11\|eleven)[- ]years?[- ]old
E3 groomed for two years groom… then two/2 years within 60 characters, same sentence
E4 boy kidnapped in Mexicali mexicali
E5 a wall in the boy’s story wall within 400 characters after the first mexicali
E6 Calexico port of entry calexico
E7 rescued in San Bernardino san bernardino
E8 the wall was the difference wall (was\|made) (all )?the difference

John’s call holds on Test A if all 8 elements are in all 4 (32 of 32).

Test B, word for word. The video’s words (lower case, punctuation dropped, numbers 0–20 written as words) are lined up against each text’s words with Python difflib. Score = share of the video’s words found in order. Match = 95% or more. (Whisper misspellings cost a few words even on the same audio: on 10-10 the same method gave 245 of 249 for the re-post.) Every unmatched video word is listed, so a reader can see what the misses are.

John’s call holds on Test B if all three texts match. Overall: holds if A and B both hold; otherwise it says which part failed.

Command (run after this is pushed, word for word)

source venv/bin/activate
python bin/every_story.py docs/cases/every-story \
  --video data/every_story/raw/youtube__i5ID7VTlLuw.mp4 \
  --text deseret=data/every_story/raw/deseret_2019-02-04.html \
  --text foxnews=data/every_story/raw/foxnews_op-ed.html \
  --text whitehouse=data/every_story/raw/ucsb_whitehouse_2019.html

The script stops if any input’s sha256 differs from inputs.SHA256SUMS. Output: docs/cases/every-story/out/.